South Sudan | Emergency alert - Major flooding event expected in late 2024, threatening to worsen humanitarian crisis.

Experts have sounded the alarm over a major flooding event expected in the latter half of 2024, driven by unprecedented water levels in Lake Victoria and forecasts of above-average rainfall across East Africa. This situation threatens to exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in South Sudan.

Flooding in Bentiu 2021, Photo by Francesca Mold/UNMISS

Major flooding is all but certain to trigger widespread displacement and result in excess loss of life. By September and October, when floodwaters are expected to peak, humanitarian actors are planning for a scenario where more than 3 million people are expected to be affected, with 2.4 million needing humanitarian assistance.

In a country highly vulnerable to climate change and with critical rates of acute malnutrition and more than 600,000 people displaced from Sudan, scaling up emergency aid is essential to support the collaborative efforts of the government and humanitarian partners. Currently, less than only 20% of the humanitarian response is funded, putting South Sudan on a trajectory towards a catastrophic level of humanitarian needs. This situation would have far-reaching implications for the entire region.

- Guillaume Pocard, Country Coordinator for IMPACT South Sudan

Across much of the country, an ongoing public health crisis characterised by rising acute malnutrition, including an projected 1.65 million children, and endemic acute food insecurity means communities are highly vulnerable to another bout of flooding. Violent conflict also remains a constant threat to safety, well-being, and livelihoods, and additional flooding could worsen ongoing intergroup tensions over control of natural resources. 

While piecemeal hydrological data leaves us with uncertain predictions about flood intensity and location, the potential devastation is clear. The humanitarian crisis worsened by the floods between 2019 and 2022 signals the potential consequences South Sudan could face should major floods materialize. Therefore, scaling up emergency assistance— including healthcare, food, sanitation, and emergency shelter— will be needed to avert an excess loss of life. 

To support humanitarian actors, prepare for the crisis, REACH released an emergency alert bringing together various primary and secondary sources. Read the full analysis for a deeper dive into the potential impacts of major floods in South Sudan. 

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About REACH

REACH is a leading humanitarian initiative that collects primary data and produces in-depth analysis to help aid actors make  evidence-based decisions in support of crisis-affected people. With this in mind, our flagship research programmes aim to inform the prioritisation of aid according to levels of need - both crisis-level planning and targeted rapid response - as well as decisions around appropriate modalities of aid. Through our team of assessment, data, geospatial, and thematic specialists, we promote the design of people-centred research and set standards for collecting and analysing  rigorous, high quality data in complex environments

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